US Open

The US Open draw was revealed a few days ago and some very interesting things are going on.

For starters, the top of the draw no longer says "Roger Federer". It has been over 4 years since a grand-slam has not had his name at the top. It has been 3 years since Rafa's name was not at the bottom. Seeing the flip in print not only makes it official, but more real than anything. We've known for 3 weeks Rafa was going to take the #1 spot on August 18th, but it doesn't make seeing Fed's name with a '2' next to it any easier.

Rafa has a nice draw in his quarter. There is some talent, Thomas Berdych and David Nalbandian for instance but those guys don't pose a serious threat. The two guys that are in his quarter that he may have to worry about are James Blake-fresh off an olympic victory over Fed, and Dr. Ivo. If I were Rafa and saw Dr. Ivo's name in my quarter I would not be too happy. You just never know what is going to happen with him, especially on a fast surface like the US Open. I don't honestly think Blake can beat Rafa, so if there is an upset it will be Dr. Ivo.

David Ferrer's quarter is an interesting one. Ferrer is the 4 seed, but as far as I'm concerned this is Andy Murray's quarter to lose. Ferrer has only 2 minor titles this year and an early flame out at the Olympics. Murray has been coming on strong all summer and has reached his highest ranking ever at #6. He had an impressive Wimbledon reaching the quarterfinals, beat Djokovic in Toronto, and beat him again the next week to win in Cincinnati. One guy to keep your eye on in this quarter as well is Juan Martin Del Potro, possibly the hottest guy on tour right now. He's the 17 seed, but has had an unbelievable summer, winning the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart, the Austrian Open, the Countrywide Classic [where he beat Roddick in the final], and the Legg Mason in D.C. [the last two US Open Masters Series tournaments]. Don't be surprised if he makes a lot of noise and takes out Ferrer before meeting Murray later on.

The bottom half of the draw is scary good. If Djokovic comes through his quarter it will be well deserved indeed. Great second round match-up here with Roddick v. Gulbis, Roddick could easily lose this match which would be devastating considering he's always talked about as someone with a puncher's chance at the Open because of his serve. Gonzo is in here at 11, always dangerous. Marat Safin is unseeded, but as at Wimbledon, if the guy gets hot watch out. Carlos Moya is having a good summer. Maran Cilic is in here, as well as Jo Wilfried-Tsonga. Djokovic should come through this quarter, but if he doesn't I think it will be Gulbis or Gonzo that gets him. I hate to say it, but don't be surprised if you see Andy out of this tournament in round 2.

Now Fed's quarter. Obviously he will be the favorite, but his quarter is absolutely stacked. Davydenko, Tursunov, Nicolas Almagro, Tipsarovic [who gave Roddick fits at Wimbledon], Gasquet, Verdasco, and Stepanek are all threats here. It would be so simple [and make me feel better] to say Federer will cruise because none of these guys have ever really given him problems, but before this year who really have him problems anyway? [Besides Rafa]. I am hoping and praying that Fed will come through this quarter, but a lingering feeling has me doubting him. He lost to James Blake in Beijing, who he was 8-0 against. Every fiber in my being tells me not to expect him to come out of his half of the draw, so I'm going to do the obvious thing. Take him anyway.

In the Semis:

Rafa v. Murray
Djokovic v. Federer

Final:

Rafa v. Federer

Winner:

Rafa [unfortunately]